March 25, the National Development and Reform Commission published the iron ore supply and demand analysis of economic operation, said the next three years, the global iron ore production will add about 300 million tons, also predicted this year will increase 50 million tons of iron ore demand . Iron ore industry to promote high-yield expansion and new projects continue to be launched, in 2013 domestic product will increase by 20 million tons of mineral around.


"Although the future iron ore supply will be oversupply, but the future of steel products will not lower the price of the phenomenon." Zhuo record information analyst Guo Kai, said the steel industry.


It is predicted that in 2013 Chinas crude steel production was 746 million tons, representing an increase of 30 million tons in 2012, is expected to increase to 50 million tons of iron ore demand.


Analysts said that Chinas crude steel output will stable or slightly decrease. Current slowdown in developed economies, the consumption of steel products is difficult to pull. India and other emerging economies affected by inadequate infrastructure, capacity and other reasons a small base, increased production is limited. Overall, the global steel industry has entered a period of longer platforms, demand for iron ore pull limited.


According to the current CVRD, Australia Rio Tinto and BHP Billitons expansion plans, the three mines in 2013 to add production capacity of about 100 million tons of iron ore. Meanwhile, consolidated in recent years, announced expansion and new mine projects, the next few years will form a production capacity of 900 million tons. Commission believes that, in 2013 to 2015 will add about 300 million tons of iron ore production.


NDRC judgment, although overall oversupply of iron ore, but because of the relative concentration of international mining companies, you can use project delay, compression and other means to regulate the production of market supply; while iron and steel enterprises, especially Chinas steel enterprises scattered, process in the blast furnace - BOF process more than 90%, blast furnace shutdown, stew stove higher costs for iron ore demand is relatively rigid.


Guo Kai believes that even in the future iron ore supply will be in a situation of oversupply, but the future does not appear steel product prices lower. Consider the future of the steel price trend must consider the amount of currency, demand, labor costs and other factors, but now pushed the steel industry in the overall context of quality steel, high-end products appear at a lower price is impossible.


Development and Reform Commission believes that there is still a supply and demand sides of the short game space.