Event
The National Bureau of statistics data show: 2014 December national crude steel daily output of 2196500 tons, growth of 4.1% qoq. In 2014 Chinas crude steel output in December 68090000 tons, year-on-year growth of 1.5%; 1-12 month crude steel output 822700000 tons, grow 0.9% compared to the same period. In 2014 December Chinas pig iron output of 56860000 tons, year-on-year growth of 3.7%; 1-12 month pig iron output of 711600000 tons, grow 0.5% compared to the same period. In 2014 December, Chinas steel output 98220000 tons, year-on-year growth of 6.4%; 1-12 month steel output 1125570000 tons, grow 4.5% compared to the same period.
Conclusion
Increase in 14 years of crude steel, pig iron output data releases, and intuitive feeling is obviously inconsistent. Cross validation with monthly data, upstream downstream data, data and so on, we think that the data reliability is low, and the high probability of undervalued. Calculation of three angle steel association data, pig iron, etc. based on the data of enterprise data, we judge the actual increase in crude steel output in 2014 should be in 2-3%, corresponding to the domestic steel demand growth 1-1.5%. In 2014 the incremental demand from construction, metal products, containers, machinery parts, general machinery, special machinery; manufacturing in 2015 continue to contribute increment, decrement and estate narrowed sharply, we judge the steel output in 2015 increased 3.9%, industry capacity utilization rate increase 3 percentage points, wherein the plate increases more obvious, is expected to reach 4 points or higher.
Production cycle is based on the logic, we continue to be optimistic about the steel industry, in 2015 will be to the trend from the inflection point. With steel prices down from unilateral to low shock, smelting iron and steel sectors of the profit improvement, from 2014 only from profit ratio ascending (steel prices fell unilateral makes the total profit of industrial chain, to a substantial contraction) also come from profits accounted for more than the total profit of ascension and the rising industrial chain. The key is to find out the current investment profit improvement highs, method for resonance for production cycle and demand cycle, inventory cycle, we judge the appeared early in the 2 quarter and 4 quarter of the probability of a larger, especially the former, prompt attention focus. Stock ideas are still based on two: high elasticity and underestimate the value of.