In December 24th, according to foreign media reports, weak oil prices and the devaluation of the Australian dollar, so that the production cost and transportation cost is reduced, the Australian domestic and export products will be more attractive. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently issued the "interim report" pointed out that the coal market, the Australian currency exchange rate will be at a low level in the next five years, China for Australias coal demand is expected to increase.
While Indonesia coal demand and higher domestic policy tightening, is leading to the coal export slowdown. Superposition of various influencing factors, will make Australia become a major coal exporting country with fastest growth. IEA is expected in the next five years, global coal export growth in total, Australia will be the largest proportion.
Earlier this year, the world maritime power coal producers Glencores largest (Glencore) estimation, sliding commodity prices and higher production costs will make about 36% of Australian coal no profit to be made. The report gives confidence undoubtedly for the Australian coal industry.
China as the worlds largest coal producer, consumer and importer, has begun to promote the diversification of energy supply and development, efforts to reduce conventional energy consumption, natural gas, nuclear power and renewable energy and other clean energy consumption is expected to grow an astonishing. However, according to IEA, although China has made some efforts to reduce coal consumption, but the consumption of the next few years will account for 3/5 of global demand growth. The next five years, normal macro economic situation, Chinas coal consumption is still not reach the peak.
According to the Australian ABC rural channel, in 2013, coal demand in China increased by 1.96 tons, higher than the amount of demand in the rest of the world combined increase of 1.88 tons. And in the same year, Chinas coal imports also reaches as high as 3.41 tons of coal imports, become the highest year. As in the past 10 years, the global coal market destiny will still be up to China to set. At the same time, India, ASEAN and other countries of Asias coal consumption will also become the main driver of global coal consumption growth, reduce coal consumption and fill in Europe and the United states.
IEA also pointed out that Chinas future economic growth needs more energy supply, but only rely on nuclear power, natural gas, petroleum and renewable resources is not enough, should also focus on coal such traditional sources of energy, investment and development of new coal power generation technology and coal gasification power plant. In fact, China is also implementing a series of measures to improve air quality, such as the establishment of the UHV transmission line connecting the big city coal bases in coal-fired power plants to install cleaning equipment etc..
Global demand growth is slightly slowing trend overall, IEA predicts that by 2019, global coal consumption will reach 90 tons. In 2015 -2019 annual global demand for coal will grow at an annual rate of 2.1%, lower than the 2014-2018 average annual demand growth of 2.3% in 2013 had predicted, average annual real growth is also lower than in 2010 -2013 years 3.3%.